Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS meet at Stadsparksvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jonkopings Sodra's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.30 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Orgryte IS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 0 for Orgryte IS and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 48% versus Orgryte IS 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Orgryte IS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.17 xG and Orgryte IS 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.880 / defence 1.021 | Orgryte IS attack 0.785 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.194. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Jonkopings Sodra games / 25 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 30%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Orgryte IS 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.17 / Orgryte IS 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.880 / def 1.021 | Orgryte IS attack 0.785 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Orgryte IS xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.79x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.39
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.13
0.96
Orgryte IS xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.96 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 9W 6D 10L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 6W 12D 7L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.20 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 6W 12D 7L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Orgryte IS away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.83 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
4
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 58%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.17 xG and Orgryte IS 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 30%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 44%, Orgryte IS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.32 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.