Jonkopings Sodra 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Helsingborg to Vapenvallen. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 April 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.97 xG and Helsingborg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.405 / defence 1.180 | Helsingborg attack 1.035 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.755. Jonkopings Sodra carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Jonkopings Sodra games / 2 Helsingborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 15%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Helsingborg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.97 / Helsingborg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.405 / def 1.180 | Helsingborg attack 1.035 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.755 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Helsingborg xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 27 April 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 60% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.41x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.97
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.89
0.92
Helsingborg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
47.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.92 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Helsingborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2021, when Helsingborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
3
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Helsingborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Jonkopings Sodra's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.97 xG and Helsingborg 0.92 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.41 / defence 1.18 against Helsingborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 15%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.