Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jonkopings Sodra 0.50 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 0–1 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 46% versus AFC Eskilstuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 39% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.734 / defence 0.995 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.933 / defence 1.660. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.237. Jonkopings Sodra's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.660 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Jonkopings Sodra games / 28 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 40% | AFC Eskilstuna 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.734 / def 0.995 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.933 / def 1.660 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.15
AFC Eskilstuna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 2 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.73x the league average against AFC Eskilstuna's defence at 1.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.55
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.51
1.15
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.15 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 8D 11L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.25 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 5D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.64 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
4
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 50% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 43% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.73 / defence 0.99 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.93 / defence 1.66, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 28% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 39%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.25 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.