IK brage 2-2 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Umeå FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Umeå FC meet at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Umeå FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Umeå FC's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Superettan this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IK brage. A 0.70 PPG lead over Umeå FC (1.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with IK brage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IK brage — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Umeå FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 60% versus Umeå FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 53% | Umeå FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.06 xG and Umeå FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.958 / defence 1.202 | Umeå FC attack 0.654 / defence 1.544. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.353. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.544 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 IK brage games / 15 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Umeå FC 18%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Umeå FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 70% | Umeå FC 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Umeå FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG IK brage 2.06 / Umeå FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.958 / def 1.202 | Umeå FC attack 0.654 / def 1.544 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: IK brage (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Umeå FC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Umeå FC kick off?
IK brage vs Umeå FC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Umeå FC?
IK brage 2 - 2 Umeå FC.
Where is IK brage vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Umeå FC part of?
IK brage vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 60% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IK brage and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Umeå FC?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Umeå FC 0W.
What form are IK brage and Umeå FC in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Umeå FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.96x the league average against Umeå FC's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Umeå FC's attack (0.65x) against IK brage's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.67
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.13
1.06
Umeå FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
42.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for IK brage and 1.06 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Umeå FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 4W 6D 5L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Umeå FC's form line: 0W 4D 11L from 15 games, 0.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IK brage are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Umeå FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Umeå FC have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Umeå FC are on 0.73 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Umeå FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Umeå FC in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Umeå FC have gone 0W 4D 11L in their last 15 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Umeå FC away?
IK brage's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 0.71 PPG; Umeå FC away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IK brage
1
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Umeå FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when IK brage 2-2 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Umeå FC?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 71%, Umeå FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 57% (Umeå FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage have failed to score in 29% of games; Umeå FC in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Umeå FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of IK brage's games and 43% of Umeå FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Umeå FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IK brage's matches and 57% of Umeå FC's.
Do IK brage and Umeå FC tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Umeå FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Umeå FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Umeå FC finished level at 2-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.06 xG and Umeå FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Umeå FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.54, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 60% | Draw 21% | Umeå FC 18%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 53%, Umeå FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Umeå FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Umeå FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.