IK brage 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Trelleborg meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 4W 2D 4L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trelleborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IK brage against 1.60 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Trelleborg have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to IK brage's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
It is worth noting that Trelleborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Trelleborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Trelleborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.842 / defence 0.987 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.169. Data: 56 IK brage games / 56 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Trelleborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 20% | Trelleborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG IK brage 1.33 / Trelleborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.842 / def 0.987 | Trelleborg attack 0.965 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: IK brage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Trelleborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Trelleborg kick off?
IK brage vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
IK brage 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is IK brage vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Trelleborg part of?
IK brage vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 40% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IK brage and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Trelleborg?
Record (7 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 5W.
What form are IK brage and Trelleborg in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.84x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.96x) against IK brage's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.34
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Trelleborg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IK brage and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IK brage and 1.11 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 20W 15D 21L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for IK brage against 1.34 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Trelleborg away?
IK brage's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.89 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IK brage or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IK brage have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Trelleborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IK brage 2-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 46%, Trelleborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Trelleborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IK brage's recent matches and 57% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Trelleborg tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.33 xG and Trelleborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Trelleborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 40% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 30%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Trelleborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trelleborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.39 PPG, Trelleborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.