IK brage 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as IK brage take on AFC Eskilstuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 June 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.78 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.760 / defence 1.159 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.600 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 0.877 / away 1.073. IK brage's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 IK brage games / 8 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 33% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 33% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG IK brage 0.78 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.760 / def 1.159 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.600 / def 1.175 | league avg home 0.877 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.74
AFC Eskilstuna xG
29%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
IK brage 1 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 33% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.76) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.60x) against IK brage's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
36%
2.75
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.53
0.74
AFC Eskilstuna xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.51
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7 | 16.2 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for IK brage and 0.74 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
IK brage
1
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.78 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.74 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.60 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 33% | Draw 36% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 45% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.