IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 11 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Osters IF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 June 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Osters IF — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG and Osters IF 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.294 / defence 1.150 | Osters IF attack 1.138 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.376. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 IF Brommapojkarna games / 40 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 44%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Osters IF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 / Osters IF 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.294 / def 1.150 | Osters IF attack 1.138 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Osters IF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 32% chance of winning, Osters IF a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Osters IF away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (1.29) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
32%
3.09
24%
4.19
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.33
1.80
Osters IF xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.80 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2022, when Osters IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Osters IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Osters IF 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna and Osters IF finished level at 1-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG and Osters IF 1.80 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Osters IF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.29 / defence 1.15 against Osters IF attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 44%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.