Helsingborg 1-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helsingborg and Trelleborg meet at Olympia in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympia. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trelleborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 26% versus Trelleborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Helsingborg 42% | Trelleborg 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.28 xG and Trelleborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.998 / defence 1.057 | Trelleborg attack 0.848 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.099. Data: 19 Helsingborg games / 19 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Trelleborg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | Trelleborg 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Helsingborg 1.28 / Trelleborg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.998 / def 1.057 | Trelleborg attack 0.848 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Trelleborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg part of?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 43% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helsingborg and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Trelleborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.00x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.85x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.55
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.27
0.98
Trelleborg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.98 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 4L across 19 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.84 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trelleborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.37 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Trelleborg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Trelleborg away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.78 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
4
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Trelleborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 33%, Trelleborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Helsingborg) and 44% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Trelleborg in 33%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 56% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Helsingborg's recent games and 44% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Trelleborg finished level at 1-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.28 xG and Trelleborg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Trelleborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 43% | Draw 28% | Trelleborg 29%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 42%, Trelleborg 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.84 PPG, Trelleborg 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.