Helsingborg 1-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helsingborg and Trelleborg meet at Olympia in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Trelleborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 48% versus Trelleborg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 43% | Trelleborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.715 / defence 0.935 | Trelleborg attack 1.002 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.091. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Helsingborg games / 44 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 40% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Trelleborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Trelleborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 40% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Helsingborg 1.18 / Trelleborg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.715 / def 0.935 | Trelleborg attack 1.002 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Trelleborg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Helsingborg 1 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg part of?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 40% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Helsingborg and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Trelleborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.71x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.00x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.45
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.20
1.02
Trelleborg xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.02 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 8W 9D 27L from 44 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 18L across 44 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trelleborg by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 4W 5D 13L from 22 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.45 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 9D 27L in their last 44 games (0.75 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.77 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
4
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Trelleborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 41%, Trelleborg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Helsingborg) and 64% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 46% of games; Trelleborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 68% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Helsingborg's recent games and 64% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Helsingborg 1-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Trelleborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 40% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 43%, Trelleborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.