Helsingborg 0-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Gais travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gais have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Helsingborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Helsingborg have won 1, Gais 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Gais in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 40% versus Gais 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | Gais 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.52 xG and Gais 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.062 / defence 1.073 | Gais attack 0.891 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.183. Gais bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Helsingborg games / 25 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Gais 28%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Gais 3.57. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 40% | Gais 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Gais 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Helsingborg 1.52 / Gais 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.062 / def 1.073 | Gais attack 0.891 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Gais xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Gais kick off?
Helsingborg vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Gais?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Gais.
Where is Helsingborg vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Gais part of?
Helsingborg vs Gais is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 46% chance of winning, Gais a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Helsingborg and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Gais in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Gais (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.86
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Gais xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.13 for Gais, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 12W 7D 6L from 25 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 14L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Helsingborg by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gais heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Gais in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 12W 7D 6L in their last 25 games (1.72 PPG), while Gais have gone 8W 3D 14L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Gais away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Gais away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Gais in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Gais won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Gais 4-1 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Helsingborg 42% BTTS, Gais 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helsingborg) and 33% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gais in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 25% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Helsingborg's recent games and 33% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Gais tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gais in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.52 xG and Gais 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Gais attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Gais 28%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, Gais 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Gais winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Gais (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.