GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

GIF Sundsvall host Orgryte IS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Orgryte IS 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

GIF Sundsvall trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Orgryte IS trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 46% versus Orgryte IS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Orgryte IS 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.11 xG and Orgryte IS 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.853 / defence 1.031 | Orgryte IS attack 1.021 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.192. Data: 57 GIF Sundsvall games / 57 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 39%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Orgryte IS 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights