GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as GIF Sundsvall welcome Oddevold to NP3 Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIF Sundsvall at 0.80 PPG versus Oddevold's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Oddevold 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Oddevold winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Oddevold in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 42% versus Oddevold 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 42% | Oddevold 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.73 xG and Oddevold 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.897 / defence 1.088 | Oddevold attack 1.062 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.149. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 GIF Sundsvall games / 19 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Oddevold 3.45. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Oddevold 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.73 / Oddevold 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.897 / def 1.088 | Oddevold attack 1.062 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Oddevold xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 46% chance of winning, Oddevold a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Oddevold (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.90) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.06
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.05
1.33
Oddevold xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.33 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 4D 11L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 0.84 PPG, Oddevold on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oddevold's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.21 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Oddevold away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.56 PPG; Oddevold away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Oddevold have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 67%, Oddevold at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for GIF Sundsvall and 78% for Oddevold. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oddevold in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 67% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 78% of Oddevold's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Oddevold tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIF Sundsvall run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Oddevold 3-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.73 xG and Oddevold 1.33 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oddevold landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Oddevold attack 1.06 / defence 1.31, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 46% | Draw 25% | Oddevold 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 42%, Oddevold 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Oddevold's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 0.84 PPG, Oddevold 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.