GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.50 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Landskrona BoIS 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 37% | Landskrona BoIS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.148 / defence 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.777 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.134. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 GIF Sundsvall games / 20 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 22%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 4.55. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Landskrona BoIS 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.71 / Landskrona BoIS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.148 / def 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.777 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Landskrona BoIS xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 54% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.15) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.18
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.70
0.99
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
25.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.99 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 9W 4D 6L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 9W 4D 6L from 19 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.63 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.11 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.89 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 44%, Landskrona BoIS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIF Sundsvall) and 56% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 56% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.99 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 22%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 37%, Landskrona BoIS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.63 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.