GIF Sundsvall 2-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo meet at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GIF Sundsvall 47% | IFK Varnamo 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 33% | IFK Varnamo 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.28 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.229 / defence 1.302 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.052 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.072. Data: 15 GIF Sundsvall games / 15 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 42%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 57% | IFK Varnamo 14% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.28 / IFK Varnamo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.229 / def 1.302 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.052 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.47
IFK Varnamo xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 33% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.23x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (1.05x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.93
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.75
1.47
IFK Varnamo xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.47 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo in 20%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Varnamo away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.57 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 57%, IFK Varnamo 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GIF Sundsvall) and 43% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 57%; IFK Varnamo in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 14% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 43% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.28 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.47 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.23 / defence 1.30 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 33% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 42%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 33%, IFK Varnamo 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.