Gais 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gais at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and Orgryte IS meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Gais have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Orgryte IS are 0.60 PPG clear of Gais in recent Superettan fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gais register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Orgryte IS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Orgryte IS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.14 xG and Orgryte IS 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.905 / defence 0.877 | Orgryte IS attack 0.745 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.149. Data: 9 Gais games / 39 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 33% | Orgryte IS 23%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Orgryte IS 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 37% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: Gais 70% | Orgryte IS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 33% | Orgryte IS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Gais 1.14 / Orgryte IS 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.905 / def 0.877 | Orgryte IS attack 0.745 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Gais (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Orgryte IS xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Gais vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 1 June 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Gais 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Gais vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Orgryte IS part of?
Gais vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 44% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Gais and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Gais and Orgryte IS in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.91) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.74x) against Gais's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.06
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gais xG
Total xG
1.89
0.75
Orgryte IS xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gais and 0.75 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais's recent record stands at 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 12L across 32 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Gais against 1.19 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gais have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.53 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gais have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Gais
0
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orgryte IS?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Orgryte IS?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Gais, 69% for Orgryte IS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 62% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gais's games and 69% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gais's matches and 62% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Gais and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.14 xG and Orgryte IS 0.75 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Orgryte IS attack 0.74 / defence 0.86, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 44% | Draw 33% | Orgryte IS 23%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.09 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.