Gais 1-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 June 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.117 / defence 1.364 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.854 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.994. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Gais games / 8 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Jun 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gais 1.33 / Landskrona BoIS 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.117 / def 1.364 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.854 / def 1.320 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Gais (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Landskrona BoIS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Gais vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 June 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Gais 1 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Gais vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Gais vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 40% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Landskrona BoIS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gais's attack at 1.12x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.85x) against Gais's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.71
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gais xG
Total xG
2.48
1.16
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gais and 1.16 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gais
0
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Gais 1-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.16 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.12 / defence 1.36 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 40% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.