Falkenbergs FF 2-2 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Falkenbergs FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Varbergs BoIS FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Falkenbergs FF, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2020, ended 2–0 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.26 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.156 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.067. Data: 0 Falkenbergs FF games / 30 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.26 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.156 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Falkenbergs FF 2 - 2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 31% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 1W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.28
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.68
1.42
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.42 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Falkenbergs FF's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. Falkenbergs FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Varbergs BoIS FC by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Falkenbergs FF heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Varbergs BoIS FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Falkenbergs FF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
4
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Falkenbergs FF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.26 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 100%, Varbergs BoIS FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Falkenbergs FF scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.