Falkenbergs FF 2-3 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra make the trip to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to face Falkenbergs FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Falkenbergs FF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenbergs FF have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Superettan this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jonkopings Sodra arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Falkenbergs FF half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 54% versus Jonkopings Sodra 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 62% | Jonkopings Sodra 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 0.97 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.919 / defence 1.493 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.726 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 0.929 / away 1.071. Data: 11 Falkenbergs FF games / 11 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Falkenbergs FF 70% | Jonkopings Sodra 33%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Falkenbergs FF 0.97 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.919 / def 1.493 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.726 / def 1.141 | league avg home 0.929 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Falkenbergs FF 2 - 3 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 30% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.92) and Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.73x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.39
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.13
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.16 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 3W 2D 8L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jonkopings Sodra are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Attack vs Defence
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2021, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Falkenbergs FF) and 33% (Jonkopings Sodra). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 50% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 33% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 33% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Falkenbergs FF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Falkenbergs FF 2-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 0.97 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.92 / defence 1.49 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 40%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 62%, Jonkopings Sodra 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.