Falkenbergs FF 0-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF host IFK Varnamo at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.10 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.816 / defence 1.199 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.751 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 0.731. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Falkenbergs FF games / 3 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 40% | IFK Varnamo 18%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.38 | Draw 2.50 | IFK Varnamo 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 40% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 40% | IFK Varnamo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.10 / IFK Varnamo 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.816 / def 1.199 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.751 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.070 / away 0.731 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
0.66
IFK Varnamo xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 42% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 18% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.82) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
42%
2.37
40%
2.52
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
1.76
0.66
IFK Varnamo xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 0.66 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2021, when IFK Varnamo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo?
From 3 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Falkenbergs FF 0-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.10 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.66 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.20 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 40% | IFK Varnamo 18%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.