Degerfors IF 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Trelleborg at Stora Valla in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Degerfors IF, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 63% versus Trelleborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Trelleborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.82 xG and Trelleborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.160 / defence 0.913 | Trelleborg attack 1.043 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.176. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Degerfors IF games / 54 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 22%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 4.55. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | Trelleborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Degerfors IF 1.82 / Trelleborg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.160 / def 0.913 | Trelleborg attack 1.043 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Trelleborg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 53% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Degerfors IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Trelleborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.16x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.95
1.12
Trelleborg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.12 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 20W 13D 21L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 20L across 54 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.35 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 13W 5D 9L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.26 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 20W 13D 21L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.63 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Trelleborg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Trelleborg?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Trelleborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Trelleborg?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 67%, Trelleborg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Degerfors IF) and 52% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Degerfors IF's games and 59% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Degerfors IF's matches and 52% of Trelleborg's.
Do Degerfors IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.82 xG and Trelleborg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against Trelleborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 22%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 56%, Trelleborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.35 PPG, Trelleborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.