Degerfors IF 4-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Degerfors IF welcome Sandviken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG, Sandviken 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.59 xG and Sandviken 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.179 / defence 1.151 | Sandviken attack 1.014 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.045. Data: 13 Degerfors IF games / 13 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 29%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sandviken 3.45. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Degerfors IF 1.59 / Sandviken 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.179 / def 1.151 | Sandviken attack 1.014 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sandviken xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Sandviken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Sandviken?
Degerfors IF 4 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Sandviken part of?
Degerfors IF vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 46% chance of winning, Sandviken a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Degerfors IF and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Sandviken in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Sandviken's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.04
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Sandviken xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.22 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D in the last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Degerfors IF or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sandviken in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Sandviken runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
0
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Sandviken?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Sandviken have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2024, when Sandviken 0-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Sandviken?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Sandviken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Sandviken 4-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.59 xG and Sandviken 1.22 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.18 / defence 1.15 against Sandviken attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 46% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 29%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sandviken shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.