Dalkurd FF 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees IK brage travel to Studenternas IP to take on Dalkurd FF. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalkurd FF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalkurd FF at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalkurd FF at 1.00 PPG versus IK brage's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dalkurd FF have won 0, IK brage 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Dalkurd FF trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

IK brage trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalkurd FF 46% versus IK brage 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalkurd FF 54% | IK brage 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.14 xG and IK brage 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.812 / defence 1.197 | IK brage attack 1.178 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.371. Data: 20 Dalkurd FF games / 50 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 21% | Draw 24% | IK brage 55%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | IK brage 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dalkurd FF 50% | IK brage 90% BTTS from recent games.

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