AFC Eskilstuna 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Ostersunds FK to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 5W 1D 4L at Tunavallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ostersunds FK's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of AFC Eskilstuna's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 55% versus Ostersunds FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Ostersunds FK 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 0.73 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.786 / defence 0.835 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.895 / defence 0.654. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.164. AFC Eskilstuna's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.654 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 AFC Eskilstuna games / 37 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 28% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 36%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Ostersunds FK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — AFC Eskilstuna's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.60 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 28% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 0.73 / Ostersunds FK 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.786 / def 0.835 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.895 / def 0.654 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 28% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 2W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (0.79) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
28%
3.51
35%
2.84
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
1.60
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.31
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 17.5 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.87 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 11D 26L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 10W 15D 35L from 60 games, 0.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AFC Eskilstuna are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 8D 20L from 30 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 15D 35L in their last 60 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Ostersunds FK away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.77 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 53%, Ostersunds FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 8, as AFC Eskilstuna and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 0.73 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.90 / defence 0.65, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 28% | Draw 35% | Ostersunds FK 36%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 53%, Ostersunds FK 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.