Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sirius at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Sirius to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Sirius have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasteras SK FK 1.70 PPG, Sirius 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Sirius and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Sirius winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Sirius trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 49% and Sirius 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vasteras SK FK 63% | Sirius 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.41 xG and Sirius 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.874 / defence 0.954 | Sirius attack 1.493 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.316. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.493 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Vasteras SK FK games / 49 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 28% | Draw 24% | Sirius 48%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 2.08. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.

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