Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sirius at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasteras SK FK face Sirius.

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Fixture Analysis

Vasteras SK FK welcome Sirius to Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sirius stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Sirius have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasteras SK FK 1.40 PPG, Sirius 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 60% of Sirius's (from Vasteras SK FK's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for Sirius and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Sirius — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sirius trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 42% versus Sirius 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Sirius 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG and Sirius 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.747 / defence 1.116 | Sirius attack 1.108 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.350. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 20 games and Sirius's last 50.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 26% | Draw 24% | Sirius 49%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.79 | Draw 4.13 | Sirius 2.03. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 60% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 60% (last 10 away games).

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