Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sirius at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Sirius to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Sirius have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vasteras SK FK 1.40 PPG, Sirius 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sirius in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for Sirius and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sirius trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 42% versus Sirius 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Sirius 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG and Sirius 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.747 / defence 1.116 | Sirius attack 1.108 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.350. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Vasteras SK FK games / 50 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 26% | Draw 24% | Sirius 49%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 2.04. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 60% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights