Vasteras SK FK 2-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host IFK Norrkoping at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasteras SK FK at 0.80 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 37% versus IFK Norrkoping 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 46% | IFK Norrkoping 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.36 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.594 / defence 1.121 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.899 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.325. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Vasteras SK FK games / 43 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 37%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.36 / IFK Norrkoping 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.594 / def 1.121 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.899 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IFK Norrkoping xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 38% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.87
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.33 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 8D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (15W 7D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 65%.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 21W 8D 14L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 15W 7D 21L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 32%, IFK Norrkoping 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Vasteras SK FK) and 77% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.36 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.59 / defence 1.12 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 37%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 46%, IFK Norrkoping 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.