Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Sirius to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.20 PPG versus Sirius's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Sirius and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2020, ended 2–0 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 65% and Sirius 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 58% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 2.25 xG and Sirius 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.067 / defence 1.145 | Sirius attack 0.933 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.097. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 43 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Sirius 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 80% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 2.25 / Sirius 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.067 / def 1.145 | Sirius attack 0.933 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sirius xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 60% chance of winning, Sirius a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 1 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.07) and Sirius's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.43
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
3.43
1.17
Sirius xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
2%
55.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.17 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 11D 19L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 13W 14D 16L from 43 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.16 PPG, Sirius on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 7D 10L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.35 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sirius in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Sirius have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Sirius away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Sirius away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Sirius won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Varbergs BoIS FC at 76%, Sirius at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Varbergs BoIS FC and 62% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 62% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 62% of Sirius's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sirius in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Sirius drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 2.25 xG and Sirius 1.17 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Sirius attack 0.93 / defence 1.44, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Sirius's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG, Sirius 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.