Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hammarby FF make the trip to Varberg Energi Arena to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 25 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Varbergs BoIS FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Varberg Energi Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Varberg Energi Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Hammarby FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Hammarby FF in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 3 for Hammarby FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 50% versus Hammarby FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 52% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 xG and Hammarby FF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.785 / defence 0.886 | Hammarby FF attack 1.009 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.068. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 44 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 33% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Hammarby FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 10% | Hammarby FF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 33% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 / Hammarby FF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.785 / def 0.886 | Hammarby FF attack 1.009 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hammarby FF xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 July 2022 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 33% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF?
Record (4 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.01x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.02
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.88
0.95
Hammarby FF xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.5 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.95 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 13W 13D 18L from 44 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 10L across 44 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 8W 7D 6L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.84 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Hammarby FF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 5-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 33%, Hammarby FF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Hammarby FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 48% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 xG and Hammarby FF 0.95 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.89 against Hammarby FF attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 33% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 34%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.