Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hammarby FF make the trip to Varberg Energi Arena to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Varbergs BoIS FC (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Hammarby FF arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Hammarby FF have the stronger record — 6 wins to Varbergs BoIS FC's 1, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 0–2 Hammarby FF — a Hammarby FF win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 49% versus Hammarby FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.818 / defence 1.488 | Hammarby FF attack 0.883 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.282. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.488 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hammarby FF's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 53 games and Hammarby FF's last 53.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 24% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 52%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 4.19 | Draw 4.14 | Hammarby FF 1.92. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Hammarby FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 24 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 24% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 / Hammarby FF 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.818 / def 1.488 | Hammarby FF attack 0.883 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Hammarby FF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 24% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.88x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 53 games and Hammarby FF's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
24%
4.19
24%
4.14
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.69
Hammarby FF xG
4.19
24%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
22.61
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.69 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 12W 12D 29L from 53 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 14L across 53 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 6W 8D 12L from their last 26 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.75 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 29L in their last 53 games (0.91 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won Hammarby FF 5-1 Varbergs BoIS FC on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2023: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 42%, Hammarby FF 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 42% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 38%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Hammarby FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 35% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 42% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 62% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.49 against Hammarby FF attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 24% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 52%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.