Varbergs BoIS FC 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Varberg Energi Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Varberg Energi Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.147 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.839 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.246. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 2 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 37% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 36%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 37% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 / GIF Sundsvall 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.799 / def 1.147 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.839 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
GIF Sundsvall xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 37% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Varbergs BoIS FC home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.80x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.84x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.62
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.20 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Varbergs BoIS FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
From 7 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and GIF Sundsvall?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 37% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 36%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.