Sirius 2-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 42%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sirius vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 9). Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Sirius (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Goteborg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sirius's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sirius, 2 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Sirius 1–0 IFK Goteborg — a Sirius win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 47% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.05 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.852 / defence 1.006 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.922 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.377. IFK Goteborg bring a tight defence (rating 0.765, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sirius's projected output down. Data: built from Sirius's last 38 games and IFK Goteborg's last 38.
Result probabilities: Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.28 | Draw 3.58 | IFK Goteborg 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sirius's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sirius 50% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 9 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Sirius 1.05 / IFK Goteborg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.852 / def 1.006 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.922 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sirius vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Sirius 2 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Sirius vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 9) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 31% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sirius and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Sirius vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.85x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.92x) against Sirius's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Sirius's last 38 games and IFK Goteborg's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
31%
3.28
28%
3.58
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.33
1.28
IFK Goteborg xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sirius vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sirius and 1.28 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 25L across 60 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sirius against 1.32 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 13W 3D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Sirius (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Sirius vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are Sirius and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Sirius's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Sirius vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sirius have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 47%, IFK Goteborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sirius) and 53% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sirius vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sirius and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sirius's recent matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sirius and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sirius's recent games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sirius's recent matches and 70% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius and IFK Goteborg finished level at 2-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.05 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 31% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 42%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.28 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.