Sirius 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sirius at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 17 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sirius 2W, Degerfors IF 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 54% versus Degerfors IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 58% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.66 xG and Degerfors IF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.926 / defence 1.099 | Degerfors IF attack 0.883 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.079. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sirius games / 43 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 4.35. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Sirius 1.66 / Degerfors IF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.926 / def 1.099 | Degerfors IF attack 0.883 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Sirius (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Sirius 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Sirius vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 51% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sirius and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.93) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.88x) against Sirius's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.90
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.71
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
22.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sirius and 1.05 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 10D 18L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.98 PPG from 43 outings (12W 6D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sirius against 0.98 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 10W 2D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 6D 25L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.60 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 45%, Degerfors IF 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sirius) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sirius's recent matches and 45% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sirius's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.66 xG and Degerfors IF 1.05 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 51% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 58%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.28 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.