Ostersunds FK 0-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 23 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Kalmar FF are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 44% versus Kalmar FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 53% | Kalmar FF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.39 xG and Kalmar FF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.993 / defence 1.193 | Kalmar FF attack 1.026 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.112. Data: 45 Ostersunds FK games / 45 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Kalmar FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Ostersunds FK dominate the H2H record, yet Kalmar FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.39 / Kalmar FF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.993 / def 1.193 | Kalmar FF attack 1.026 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 36% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.03x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.36
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.75
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.36 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 10W 12D 23L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 12W 16D 17L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.16 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 8W 7D 7L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 0.98 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.77 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 54%, Kalmar FF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Ostersunds FK) and 50% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ostersunds FK's games and 59% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 50% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.39 xG and Kalmar FF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against Kalmar FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 36% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 53%, Kalmar FF 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 0.93 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.