Ostersunds FK 0-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 26 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 1D 7L at Jämtkraft Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Ostersunds FK, 0.90 for Halmstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Halmstad in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus Halmstad 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 64% | Halmstad 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.77 xG and Halmstad 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.156 / defence 1.225 | Halmstad attack 0.876 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.148. Data: 41 Ostersunds FK games / 11 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 25%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Halmstad 4.00. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Halmstad 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.77 / Halmstad 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.156 / def 1.225 | Halmstad attack 0.876 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Halmstad xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 48% chance of winning, Halmstad a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (1.16) and Halmstad's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.88x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.79
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.00
1.23
Halmstad xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
23.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.23 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 2D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad's form line: 2W 6D 3L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.09 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Halmstad have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.82 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 2W 6D 3L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Halmstad away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.20 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Halmstad have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
Halmstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 60%, Halmstad 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Ostersunds FK and 40% for Halmstad. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Halmstad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ostersunds FK's games and 60% of Halmstad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 40% of Halmstad's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Halmstad tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Halmstad defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.77 xG and Halmstad 1.23 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.16 / defence 1.23 against Halmstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 25%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Halmstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 64%, Halmstad 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Halmstad's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 0.73 PPG, Halmstad 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.