Osters IF 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Osters IF welcome Hammarby FF to Visma Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 67% versus Hammarby FF 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 70% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.829 / defence 0.925 | Hammarby FF attack 0.975 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.254. Data: 6 Osters IF games / 36 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 33% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 40% | Hammarby FF 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 33% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Osters IF 1.06 / Hammarby FF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.829 / def 0.925 | Hammarby FF attack 0.975 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Hammarby FF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Osters IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Hammarby FF?
Osters IF 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Osters IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Osters IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 33% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osters IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Hammarby FF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Osters IF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.26
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.19
1.13
Hammarby FF xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.13 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osters IF's recent record stands at 16W 6D 8L from 30 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 8L across 30 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Osters IF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.60 scored and 0.83 conceded. Osters IF's scoring rate against Hammarby FF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osters IF and Hammarby FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Hammarby FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Hammarby FF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Osters IF and 53% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 47%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 27% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Osters IF's matches and 53% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Osters IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osters IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 0-3 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Hammarby FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 33% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 37%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.