Orgryte IS 1-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Halmstad meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Orgryte IS against 0.50 for Halmstad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Halmstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus Halmstad 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 55% | Halmstad 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.95 xG and Halmstad 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.108 / defence 1.349 | Halmstad attack 0.693 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.386. Data: 17 Orgryte IS games / 47 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Halmstad 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Halmstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Orgryte IS 1.95 / Halmstad 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.108 / def 1.349 | Halmstad attack 0.693 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Halmstad xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Halmstad kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Halmstad kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Halmstad part of?
Orgryte IS vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 52% chance of winning, Halmstad a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Orgryte IS and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Halmstad?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | Halmstad 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Halmstad in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Halmstad's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.69x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.23
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.25
1.30
Halmstad xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
3%
28.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.30 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 12D 16L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 0.89 PPG from 47 outings (11W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Halmstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Orgryte IS's home form reads 10W 7D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.74 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 11W 9D 27L in their last 47 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Halmstad away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.61 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Halmstad in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Halmstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Halmstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-1 Halmstad.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 48%, Halmstad 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Orgryte IS) and 44% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 26% of games; Halmstad in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 39% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 44% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Halmstad tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Halmstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, as Orgryte IS and Halmstad drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.95 xG and Halmstad 1.30 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.11 / defence 1.35 against Halmstad attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 52% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 55%, Halmstad 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Halmstad's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.