Orebro SK 0-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 13 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orebro SK lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 55% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.18 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.817 / defence 1.137 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.094 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.073. Data: 47 Orebro SK games / 47 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Orebro SK 1.18 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.817 / def 1.137 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.094 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orebro SK 0 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 31% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.82x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.09x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.25
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.51
1.33
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.33 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 15W 10D 22L from 47 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 19L across 47 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.28 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 7D 7L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 5W 7D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.48 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 13 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
3
Draws
4
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Orebro SK) and 52% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 35% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Orebro SK's games and 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Orebro SK's recent games and 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Orebro SK 0-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.18 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 31% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 55%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.17 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.