Orebro SK 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Varbergs BoIS FC have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.603 / defence 0.985 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.029 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.181. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Orebro SK games / 6 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.04. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Orebro SK's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 0% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Orebro SK 0.67 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.603 / def 0.985 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.029 / def 1.179 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orebro SK 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 21% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.60x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.03x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
21%
4.84
31%
3.27
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.86
1.20
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
6%
16.01
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 18.5 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.20 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Orebro SK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 2L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Varbergs BoIS FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 6 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Early Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 0.67 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 13 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
3
Draws
4
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Orebro SK) and 33% (Varbergs BoIS FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Orebro SK and 67% for Varbergs BoIS FC.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 100% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 33% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orebro SK's recent games and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.20 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.60 / defence 0.98 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 21% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 49%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 33%, Varbergs BoIS FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.