Orebro SK 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Degerfors IF at Behrn Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Degerfors IF's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 1 for Degerfors IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2021, ended 0–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 39% versus Degerfors IF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.61 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.769 / defence 1.213 | Degerfors IF attack 0.722 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.098. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Orebro SK games / 23 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 51% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Degerfors IF 4.76. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 51% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Orebro SK 1.61 / Degerfors IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.769 / def 1.213 | Degerfors IF attack 0.722 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Orebro SK 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 51% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orebro SK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.77) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.66
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.57
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.96 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 4W 4D 15L from 23 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 12L across 23 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 0.70 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.09 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 15L in their last 23 games (0.70 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Orebro SK's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 0.91 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orebro SK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2021, when Degerfors IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 46%, Degerfors IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Orebro SK) and 54% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; Degerfors IF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 46% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Orebro SK's recent games and 54% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.61 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Degerfors IF attack 0.72 / defence 1.37, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 51% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 21%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.70 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.