Orebro SK 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 34%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm meet at Behrn Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, AIK Stockholm are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, AIK Stockholm 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 2–0 with Orebro SK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 46% versus AIK Stockholm 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | AIK Stockholm 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.10 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.716 / defence 1.085 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.882 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.148. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Orebro SK games / 41 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 34% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 34%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | AIK Stockholm 2.94. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 34% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Orebro SK 1.10 / AIK Stockholm 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.716 / def 1.085 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.882 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
AIK Stockholm xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 34% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.88x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
34%
2.98
33%
3.04
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.20
1.10
AIK Stockholm xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.10 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 14W 7D 20L from 41 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 14L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.44 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 5W 7D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.10 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 7D 20L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.63 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
2
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when AIK Stockholm 2-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 53%, AIK Stockholm 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Orebro SK) and 42% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 32%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; AIK Stockholm in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 42% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Orebro SK's recent games and 42% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm finished level at 1-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.10 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.72 / defence 1.08 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 34% | Draw 33% | AIK Stockholm 34%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, AIK Stockholm 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.20 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.