Mjallby AIF 0-0 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Mjallby AIF take on Halmstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.00 for Halmstad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for Halmstad and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Halmstad — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 32% versus Halmstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 21% | Halmstad 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.84 xG and Halmstad 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.611 / defence 0.842 | Halmstad attack 0.677 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.083. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 19 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 39% | Halmstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 2.56 | Halmstad 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Halmstad's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Halmstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 39% | Halmstad 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.84 / Halmstad 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.611 / def 0.842 | Halmstad attack 0.677 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Halmstad xG
27%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 Halmstad.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, Halmstad a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | Halmstad 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Halmstad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Halmstad's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.68x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.71
39%
2.55
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.45
0.62
Halmstad xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.68
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 14.4 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.62 for Halmstad, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 3W 8D 8L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad's form line: 4W 8D 7L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.05 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Halmstad have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.68 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 8D 8L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Halmstad away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.12 PPG; Halmstad away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Halmstad in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
From 9 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, Halmstad have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Mjallby AIF) and 38% (Halmstad) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Mjallby AIF and 12% for Halmstad.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 62% of games; Halmstad in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 38% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 12% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 20, as Mjallby AIF and Halmstad drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.84 xG and Halmstad 0.62 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.61 / defence 0.84 against Halmstad attack 0.68 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 39% | Halmstad 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 18% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 21%, Halmstad 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Halmstad's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 0.89 PPG, Halmstad 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.