Mjallby AIF 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gais have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gais's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.60 for Gais. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Gais and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG and Gais 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.029 / defence 0.959 | Gais attack 0.958 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.346. Data: 31 Mjallby AIF games / 31 Gais games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Gais 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | Gais 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.47 / Gais 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.029 / def 0.959 | Gais attack 0.958 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Gais kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Gais part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 43% chance of winning, Gais a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.96x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Gais xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.24 for Gais, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.75 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Gais away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Gais have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Gais 0-0 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 57% of Gais's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Gais tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, as Mjallby AIF and Gais drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG and Gais 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Gais attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.