Mjallby AIF 0-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus Falkenbergs FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Thursday 18 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.81 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.648. Data: 1 Mjallby AIF games / 1 Falkenbergs FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 15% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 53%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 6.67 | Draw 3.12 | Falkenbergs FF 1.89. Falkenbergs FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Falkenbergs FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 15% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.81 / Falkenbergs FF 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.648 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Falkenbergs FF xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 June 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 15% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 53% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.85x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
15%
6.51
32%
3.14
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.42
1.61
Falkenbergs FF xG
6.51
15%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
32.58
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.61 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
0
Draws
1
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Falkenbergs FF edge out Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.81 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 15% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 53%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.