Mjallby AIF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 39%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 3D 4L at Strandvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 46% versus Djurgardens IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 37% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.34 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / defence 0.932 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.011 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.264. Data: 46 Mjallby AIF games / 47 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.34 / Djurgardens IF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / def 0.932 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.011 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.01x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.53
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.19 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 14D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (25W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 6W 9D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 14D 15L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 9D 12L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.23 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 68%, Djurgardens IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 41% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 32%; Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mjallby AIF's games and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.34 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 37%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.