Mjallby AIF 1-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.54 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.976 / defence 0.871 | Degerfors IF attack 1.044 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.110. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Mjallby AIF games / 3 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.54 / Degerfors IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.976 / def 0.871 | Degerfors IF attack 1.044 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 48% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.98x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.04x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.54
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.55
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.01 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Degerfors IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.54 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Degerfors IF attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.