Mjallby AIF 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 63% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 60% | BK Hacken 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and BK Hacken 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.888 / defence 0.701 | BK Hacken attack 0.835 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Mjallby AIF games / 36 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 37% | BK Hacken 21%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.38 | Draw 2.70 | BK Hacken 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — BK Hacken's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 70% | BK Hacken 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 37% | BK Hacken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.02 / BK Hacken 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.888 / def 0.701 | BK Hacken attack 0.835 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.65
BK Hacken xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 42% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.89) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
42%
2.41
37%
2.67
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.67
0.65
BK Hacken xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.65 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 13W 8D 9L from 30 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 5L across 30 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.57 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 3W 9D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 12W 13D 5L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.87 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, BK Hacken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 33%; BK Hacken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken finished level at 1-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and BK Hacken 0.65 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.89 / defence 0.70 against BK Hacken attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 37% | BK Hacken 21%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 60%, BK Hacken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.57 PPG, BK Hacken 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.