Mjallby AIF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.70 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.113 / defence 0.838 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.473. Data: 32 Mjallby AIF games / 32 AIK Stockholm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | AIK Stockholm 3.85. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.77 / AIK Stockholm 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.113 / def 0.838 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AIK Stockholm xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 50% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.28
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.22
AIK Stockholm xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.22 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 20L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.40 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 53% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm finished level at 1-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.22 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 26%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.