Mjallby AIF 0-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 6 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.40 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus AIK Stockholm 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 35% | AIK Stockholm 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.950 / defence 1.034 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.900 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.012. Data: 35 Mjallby AIF games / 35 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | AIK Stockholm 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 90% | AIK Stockholm 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.46 / AIK Stockholm 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.950 / def 1.034 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.900 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 49% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (3 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.62
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.41
0.94
AIK Stockholm xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
5%
18.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.94 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 20W 21D 19L from 60 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 32W 13D 15L across 60 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AIK Stockholm by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjallby AIF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.37 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, AIK Stockholm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mjallby AIF) and 47% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 57% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 47% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm finished level at 0-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 49% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, AIK Stockholm 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.