Malmo FF 1-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eleda Stadion plays host to Malmo FF versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 27 October 2025 at 18:10 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Eleda Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Malmo FF, 1.90 for Hammarby FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Malmo FF 3W, Hammarby FF 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 49% versus Hammarby FF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 56% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.40 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 0.941 / defence 0.870 | Hammarby FF attack 1.106 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.384. Data: 57 Malmo FF games / 57 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 35%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | Hammarby FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Malmo FF 1.40 / Hammarby FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 0.941 / def 0.870 | Hammarby FF attack 1.106 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 27 October 2025 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Malmo FF 1 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 38% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Malmo FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (8 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 3 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.11x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.77
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.33 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 31W 17D 9L from 57 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 14L across 57 games — 1.91 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Malmo FF against 1.91 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 19W 5D 4L from 28 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 13W 5D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Malmo FF are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.77 scored and 0.91 conceded. Malmo FF's scoring rate against Hammarby FF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 31W 17D 9L in their last 57 games (1.93 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 33W 10D 14L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.21 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Malmo FF
3
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 46%, Hammarby FF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Malmo FF) and 54% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 39% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Malmo FF's matches and 54% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Malmo FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Malmo FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 1-3 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.40 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Hammarby FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 35%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 56%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.93 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.