Kalmar FF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Kalmar FF welcome Malmo FF to Guldfågeln Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 2.10 (Malmo FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kalmar FF, 2 for Malmo FF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2021, ended 1–3 with Malmo FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kalmar FF trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus Malmo FF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 48% | Malmo FF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and Malmo FF 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.977 / defence 1.006 | Malmo FF attack 1.365 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.172. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Kalmar FF games / 58 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 26% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 49%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 2.04. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 60% | Malmo FF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 26% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Kalmar FF 1.09 / Malmo FF 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.977 / def 1.006 | Malmo FF attack 1.365 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Malmo FF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 26% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kalmar FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
26%
3.87
25%
4.03
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.61
Malmo FF xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
19.34
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.61 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 20W 18D 20L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Malmo FF's form line: 33W 16D 9L from 58 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Malmo FF are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (7W 11D 11L).
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 14W 8D 7L from 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 33W 16D 9L in their last 58 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.10 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2024, when Malmo FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Malmo FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-2 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 48%, Malmo FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kalmar FF) and 62% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Malmo FF in 34%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Kalmar FF's games and 62% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 62% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and Malmo FF 1.61 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Malmo FF attack 1.36 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 26% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 49%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 48%, Malmo FF 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.